Model initial conditions and management information accounted for one-fourth of the variation in maize yield. The good prediction at planting time was explained by the existence of shallow water tables, which decreased model sensitivity to unknown summer precipitation by 50–64%. They found that the predicted median yield at planting was a very good indicator of end-of-season yields. The paper (1) describes the methodology used to perform forecasts (2) evaluates model prediction accuracy against data collected from 10 locations over four years and (3) identifies inputs that are key in forecasting yields and soil N dynamics. Historical, current and forecasted weather data were used to drive simulations, which were released in public four weeks after planting. The authors used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to predict and explain maize and soybean yields, phenology, and soil water and nitrogen (N) dynamics during the growing season in Iowa, USA.
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